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DresdenGman/README.md
Dresden Goehner — Applied Mathematics · Trustworthy ML · Scientific OSS

Website  OSS Evidence  GERT  FutureOS



I'm a student developer working at the intersection of applied mathematics, probabilistic modelling, and scientific open-source engineering. I build systems that make uncertainty, failure conditions, and provenance explicit — then test whether conclusions hold outside a clean demo.

The common thread across everything I build: replace impressive-looking outputs with calibrated evidence.

Quantitative Modeling & Data Analysis intern at Energy Innovation: Policy & Technology LLC (Summer 2025) — electricity demand forecasting, extreme-weather calibration, tail-risk analysis under Lele Zou.



Mathematics competitions at a glance

Competition Result What it means
AIME 2026 (American Invitational Mathematics Examination) 14 / 15 Invitation-only second round of the US Math Olympiad pipeline (AMC 10/12 → AIME → USAMO/USAJMO → IMO team). Only a small fraction of AMC 10/12 takers qualify (MAA guarantees at least the top 2.5% of AMC 10 and top 5% of AMC 12). A 14 is approx. top ~2.5% of AIME takers — roughly top ~0.25% of all AMC participants (approximate, my own estimate).
USAJMO 2026 (USA Junior Mathematical Olympiad) Qualifier Invitation-only USA Junior Math Olympiad — the next stage after AIME.
British Mathematical Olympiad Round 2 (BMO2) 2026 27 / 40 — Distinction · Best in School BMO2 is the final olympiad round used to select the UK International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) squad. As an international student I was not officially ranked; based on UKMT's published BMO2 2026 score distribution (8 students scored 26+), my score corresponds to about 8th overall (international, unranked).
Stanford Math Tournament (SMT) 2026 Algebra — 3rd place · Discrete — 7th place Subject-test placements at one of the largest university-run math contests (~800 in-person competitors; 2,000+ participants globally including SMT Online, per SMT).


Flagship projects

EPSILON — Algorithmic Trading Decision Lab

Falsifiability-first quantitative research environment. Failure conditions are locked in before results appear. Realistic order types, slippage, FFT analysis, robustness diagnostics.

Audited 200+ LightGBM fits — detected leakage, IC dropped 0.94 → 0.10. Strategy rejected.

Diamond Challenge Beijing Regional — 3rd place.

Python Next.js FastAPI

→ Project

AI Navigation Glasses

Low-cost AI glasses for visually impaired users. Multimodal: traffic signals, obstacle detection, voice feedback, computer vision. Safety-first design — low-confidence detections never trigger action commands.

Deployed and donated across three communities; taught older adults to self-assemble devices.

Computer Vision Edge AI Raspberry Pi

→ Repository



Open-source engineering

23 external pull requests merged across 14 organizations.

23
merged PRs
14
organizations
15
repositories

Contributions to: HuggingFace/peft · langgenius/dify · networkx/networkx · fairlearn/fairlearn · Nixtla/statsforecast · Nixtla/neuralforecast · SALib/SALib · beeware/briefcase · scikit-lego · scikit-learn-contrib/MAPIE · argoproj/argo-cd · ag2ai/faststream · and more

Four representative contributions
PR What it did
MAPIE #953 Added AUROC / AUARC uncertainty metrics; 349 additions across 5 files
Fairlearn #1674 Confidence-interval support in plot_metric_frame via public MetricFrame API
NetworkX #8735 Regression-tested warning for ineffective PageRank convergence threshold
BeeWare Briefcase #2939 Hardened 27 GitHub Actions refs; pinned permissions; zizmor scanning

→ Full evidence record with dated methodology



Research

PJM Polar-Vortex Load Forecasting (in progress) — Annual 90% interval coverage 82–85%, collapsing to 31–33% during the 2014 cold event. 78,888 point forecasts. Demonstrates how standard annual validation conceals systematic failure during rare extremes.

The Backtest That Lied — 200+ LightGBM fits audited. Leakage detection cut information coefficient from 0.94 → 0.10. Strategy rejected after costs and liquidity constraints.

→ Research notes · → PJM paper repository



Competition results

Competition Result
AIME 2026 14 / 15 — Qualification
British Mathematical Olympiad Round 2 27 / 40 — Distinction · Best in School
Stanford Math Tournament 2026 — Algebra 3rd place
Stanford Math Tournament 2026 — Discrete 7th place
British Physics Olympiad Round 1 2025–26 80 / 100 — Top Gold · Beijing #5
UK Senior Mathematical Challenge 120 / 125
LSESU Economics Challenge 97 / 100
World Scholar's Cup Beijing 2025 Overall Champion Scholar; Senior Team 3rd


Contribution counts verified via GitHub API, November 2026. Calibration and methodology notes: evidence record.

Pinned Loading

  1. AIGlasses_for_navigation AIGlasses_for_navigation Public

    Open-source AI navigation glasses under $35 — they say what they see, and say 'uncertain' instead of guessing. Safety-first, printable enclosure, community build kit.

    Python 211 30

  2. EPSILON-trading-simulator EPSILON-trading-simulator Public

    Open-source quantitative decision lab: test market assumptions, preserve negative results, and reproduce evidence.

    TypeScript 227 32

  3. fairlearn/fairlearn fairlearn/fairlearn Public

    A Python package to assess and improve fairness of machine learning models.

    Python 2.3k 535

  4. scikit-learn-contrib/MAPIE scikit-learn-contrib/MAPIE Public

    A scikit-learn-compatible library for estimating prediction intervals and controlling risks, based on conformal predictions.

    Jupyter Notebook 1.7k 175